Stock Market Savings

Something for nothing? Sounds impossible. Well, there are many wild and crazy impossibilities coming down everyday. This chapter is full of possibilities—infinite possibilities. As a matter of fact, the rate of return above is infinite because you can’t divide nothing into anything. It is physically impossible to divide nothing into something. Go ahead—try!

Let’s talk money. You calculate a rate of return based on dividing the profits (gain) by your investment. A $1,200 profit on a $10,000 investment is 12%. That’s simple. Now let’s take on a hard one. A $1,200 profit on a zero dollar investment, produces an infinite rate of return. The trick, my dear Sherlock, is getting $1,200 out of nothing.

Would you like to know that it’s just not that tough? We’re not going to defy gravity or any other law of nature. We’ll just defy the laws of stodgy-thinking, Wall Street insiders who are helplessly locking into boring investment strategies. We are going to take all or some of our profits and buy or continue to own some of the stock. It’s that simple, and while not exactly free, it has that semblance.

A.   Earnings news. Many company stocks have a 5 to 10% jump on good earnings news. Be careful, however. Sometimes earnings are up but the stock goes down. This usually occurs when the earnings are not as good as some analysts projected. This news plays out really fast. Many people buy the stock in hopes of a better dividend. The short run up is truly short. The stock doesn’t always go back down to where it was before the last bit of news, but many times I’ve seen it go lower. I think the reason for this is that the stock was already up in anticipation of good news (company leaks, press speculation, et cetera). There usually is no long-term stability for the “jumped up” higher price. Rather, the direction is down. This is one of my favorite formulas. Why? Because we make money so fast.

B.   Mergers, Acquisitions—especially failed attempts when companies take over other companies. I usually like to play the one being taken over. If the attempt fails, or takes longer than expected, the stocks go down—witness Chrysler (C) a while ago. There are two plays:

1. If there is a lot of debt involved (especially acquisition of new debt), as compared to a stock swap, the bigger company’s (the one doing the takeover or merger) stock may see a quick—usually small—run up and then come down as investor euphoria cools. Sometimes the terms of the deal have a chill­ing effect.

2. The baby com­pany’s stock may run up to the take

over price but quickly cool with the lapse of time. This may be time for call options (not put options) if the takeover is friendly and the price is right.

C Spin-offs: when a big company spins off a division or subsidiary and a lot of cash is to be generated, there is usually a nice up tick in the stock. From my experience, though, it is short-lived. Why? The company selling off usually has other problems (the core busi­ness is in trouble) and the directors are pres­sured by shareholder groups to liquidate assets to get the main business going or to distribute cash dividends, et cetera. The prob­lems don’t go away easily and the stock dribbles back down.

D. Stock splits: stock splits offer so many op­portunities, I cannot do justice to them here. I’ve written extensively on them in the Wall Street Money Machine and I do so many plays (with explanations) on our Computer Bulletin Board Service (WIN = Call 1-800-872-7411 for details). We’ll just deal with the put play in this chapter.

The key is to watch and wait. If the stock runs way up c the announcement of the stock split and continues to climb c other good news announcements like an increase in di\ dends, just be patient. It will probably take a dip.

 

Remember:

1.    The stock is probably entering new territory—it may be ripe for a sell off as investors take their profits.

2.    There are whole market swings, or at least sector swin (sympathy moves?) to contend with.

3.    Other news—competition from others, charge offs, cetera, may affect the stock.

Remember most stocks just don’t go up in a straight lin Wait for true strength, check your charts (stochastic, mark sentiments, et cetera) and ride the stock down with a p option. Look at the following examples:

Accustaff (ASTF) was an awesome play. Many of our in­vestors and stu­dents found this easy. Calls on dips, puts on strength. For a short time it was a roller.

McDonnell Douglas (MD) announced a 2:1 split. It had a nice steady increase going. Then the whole market went down (first part of April, 1996) and McDonnell Douglas went down too. When it hit $94, with almost two months left before the split I fig­ured it was too high. It did go down to $88, then it became a call candidate once again.

Boeing (BA) also climbed close to $90. When it hit $88, I bought the $90 puts at $2⁷/8 on April 17, and sold the $85 calls for a large profit.

Avon(AVP) had a steady in­cline line, al­most too good to be true. When it got into the low $90s, I thought it peaked. The $90 puts were the play.

On the following page are some other charts for your perusal. The point of putting these here is to show volatility.

Look what happens after the split. Sometimes they go up and level off, but sometimes they go down.

Wait for weakness.

Sometimes the stock goes nowhere. It may be so high before the split that there is nowhere to go in the short term (usually due to stockholders selling off to lock in their gains) so the stock falls. These are hard to time. I usually wait for weakness and buy the call before I start playing puts. I want it to establish a roll pattern or run up to a new high. In short: to play puts we need all indicators pointing to a decrease in the stock price.

Buying put options when a stock has had a tremendous run up will have the same timing, and the same in the money, and out of the money pricing as a rolling option which has peaked. However, there is one substantial difference and this differ­ence can make you a lot of money—very quickly.

Here is how it works. Every day there are several stocks which close several dollars higher. They usually move higher on news. Sometimes, but very seldom, they do so for no reason whatsoever. The good news is usually about earnings—and if the earnings are great, the new high might be sustained, but if it’s something other than earnings, i.e. a takeover, a merger, new product, stock split, et cetera, the news can play out very quickly.

As in the “Dead Cat Bounce” strategy, the Peak Strategy happens very quickly. You have to be ready to move—not only on the purchase but also to sell. I usually know my exit (sell price) when I get involved.

There are so many examples it is difficult to only choose three or four for this chapter. There are sometimes hundreds a day. I go for the big moves, so let’s show you how to do this, right after we explain the play.

A stock goes up $8 in one day—on whatever news. It goes from $52 to $60 between 2:30pm and closing at 4:00pm (Eastern Time). It stops right around $60. We wait. There may be additional good or bad news after the market closes. If you think it has peaked, buying it now might be the move.

The next morning we check the news; we see the direction of the stock—waiting for resistance, or a good top. Usually this means the stock starts moving back down. This top may take several days to establish. The $8 run up was great but it goes up $2 the next day and then about noon on the third day, after it’s gone up another dollar, it gives back that $1 and even drops another 50tf.

If you think the news has played out, consider buying the $60 put or the $65 put. Let’s say the $65 put is going for $4 (the stock is at $62.50) while the $60 put is $1. Then over the next several weeks or months the stock gives back one-half of the $10 plus run-up. Your put value will grow drastically.

I usually buy these out a month or two. If I do them short term-two weeks to six weeks—I usually do in the money options ($65 put). If I play out further and there is no new news on the horizon (earnings reports won’t be out for another three months, et cetera), I’ll play out of the money puts—say $60 or even the $55 put if I’m feeling wild.

 

Examples:

1)   Last year Cheyenne Software (CYE) was to come out with great earn­ings. The price of the stock started to move up. Later they announced a multi-hundred-million-dollar write off from some bad deal. The stock went down the next day.

2)   Fannie Mae (FNM) announced a 4:1 stock split. Later it an­nounced a bil-1 i on-d o11ar stock buy back.

3)    Intel (INTC) an­nounced a stock split, then within days, they an­nounced an in­crease in their dividend.

The list is endless. I believe we live in a very short-term society. We forget good news in about three days. It takes three months to forget bad news. This is only my conjecture, “the gospel according to Wade.” I have no empirical evidence to back up the three day/three month statement, only a string of profitable trades using this as a guideline.

 

Examples:

Yes, you can make money on both up and down stock movements. Use these strategies for maximum cash flow.

Motorola (MOT): a long­time favorite rolling stock (not rolling, now) shot up $6 in one day. We had call options and sold out at a nice profit. Then when it peaked, we rode it back down.

United Airlines (UAL) announced a 4:1 split. It shot up. We

got in and out. Then when it peaked at $220, we got in on the puts. There was still plenty of time before the split date—it went down.

Author’s note: just because a stock splits doesn’t mean it imme­diately starts climbing up. Sometimes there’s a sell off (or whatever) and the stock goes down. See how to play these movements under Stock Splits.